{"id":1760,"date":"2026-08-31T07:36:16","date_gmt":"2026-08-31T07:36:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/urbaneconomynews.com\/?p=1760"},"modified":"2026-08-31T07:36:16","modified_gmt":"2026-08-31T07:36:16","slug":"drones-wont-win-wars-but-they-are-dangerous-and-have-changed-warfare","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/urbaneconomynews.com\/?p=1760","title":{"rendered":"Drones Won\u2019t Win Wars, But they are Dangerous and Have Changed Warfare"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

We are only beginning to understand the full potential of drone warfare. But they are having an impact at many levels, and drone technology keeps evolving.<\/p>\n

Read more Why Higher Education Is Likely Doomed<\/a><\/p>\n

Here is how drones are being used.<\/p>\n

Battlefield Weapons<\/strong><\/p>\n

Drones have become significant battlefield weapons, so much so that today\u2019s battlefield is saturated by drones, some of them specialized, many of them dirt cheap, and they are used by the tens of thousands, especially in Ukraine.<\/p>\n

The most common type of battlefield drone is called first-person view (FPV). These are cheap drones that have explosive charges strapped onto them, typically old Russian antitank missile warheads (called RPG or rocket-propelled grenade, but typically the rocket is removed, leaving only a small but lethal shaped charge warhead). The FPV drone is controlled by an operator who either uses a laptop or tablet computer or has computer goggles that display what the drone \u201csees.\u201d FPV drones have a small camera, typically the same cameras used in your cellphone. They are guided by GPS and transmit video to the human operator. He adjusts the drone\u2019s trajectory to the target.<\/p>\n

FPV drones are between $1,000 and $5,000. They can kill troops and destroy equipment, even modern battle tanks. Field reports from Ukraine, acknowledged both by the Ukrainians and Russians, say that it takes between 10 and 20 drone strikes to kill a tank. This sounds like a lot, but when a typical battle might involve a thousand drones, it is not much. In fact, drone battlefield warfare has become so effective that large units and armor can barely move before they are hit.<\/p>\n

There are two major developments in FPV drones, one cheap and one requiring good technology. The cheap solution is the fiber optic drone. A fiber optic drone is controlled by an ultrathin fiber optic cable strand that is very hard to see. The fiber optic cable is let out from a spool typically mounted on the underside of the FPV drone. The spool, depending on size, can reach from 3 to 12 miles. The fiber optic cable can transmit very high-quality images to the operator (better than any radio) and cannot be electronically intercepted or jammed. The Ukrainian and Russian armies have fiber optic drones. So do the Iranians and terrorist groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas. Israel has been facing a serious problem because until recently it had few tools to defeat fiber-optic controlled drones. The situation in Israel, however, is starting to improve in terms of available countermeasures.<\/p>\n

The more costly development is for drones that operate autonomously and don\u2019t require control by an operator, which means no radio transmission or fiber optics. Autonomous drones rely on some level of pattern recognition and artificial intelligence to select and hit targets. The key advantage is they cannot be jammed electronically, and detecting them is difficult if their AI computers can mask their approach to a target, using altitude and maneuvering\u00a0to avoid interception.<\/p>\n

AI drones being used by Russia are effective, but they need processors that were developed in the United States. By far the most important component is a microchip made by the American company NVIDIA and called Jensen. Most Jensen chips are made under contract by TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.) outside the United States. Because the U.S. did an incredibly lousy job controlling Jensen exports, they are all over China and accessible to bad actors like Russia and Iran. The Ukrainians have collected a number of Russian drones with Jensen chips inside and may be using Jensens in their own long-range drone products.<\/p>\n

Battlefield drones have changed modern warfare. A huge effort is underway to find effective countermeasures, but at least so far, available systems to defeat drones are running behind the technological evolution of battlefield drones.<\/p>\n

Long-Range Drones<\/strong><\/p>\n

Many countries have used long-range drones to carry out strikes on military targets, critical infrastructure such as energy sources, oil and gas distribution facilities, ships at sea, government buildings and installations, and civilian targets. For example, Iran attacked oil fields in Saudi Arabia, airports in Kuwait, port facilities in the UAE, industrial zones in Oman, and strategic targets such as air defense radars and military housing. The Houthis have fired drones at Saudi Arabia and Israel. Ukraine and Russia are targeting each other\u2019s critical infrastructure, including oil refineries, airfields, and port facilities. It is a long list that is growing longer daily.<\/p>\n

Long-range drones are usually fixed-wing aircraft with gasoline or diesel engines and a single propeller. They differ from FPV drones that typically are quadcopters and are battery-powered, although there are also single-engine drones on the battlefield, such as Russia\u2019s Lancet.<\/p>\n

Most long-range drones are ground-launched, but some can also be carried on and launched from aircraft.<\/p>\n

There is no fixed definition of a long-range drone. However, such drones can cover hundreds of miles. Most of them are radio-controlled and rely on GPS for guidance purposes. Ukrainian drones are using Starlink satellites for communications, making jamming very difficult since Starlink uses clusters of low-Earth-orbit satellites. The Russians were also using Starlink, but Elon Musk cut off their access. Since then, Russia has been rushing to try to create a Starlink-like satellite network. In the meantime, it is relying on a special class of Orlan drones that can form a mesh network that can relay signals to long-range drones and back to their territorial operators.<\/p>\n

Russia took Iran\u2019s Shahed-136 delta-winged, one-way attack drone and improved it and began manufacturing a series of drones called Geran. The Geran-2 is a long-range drone, made from composite material, that is hard to track on radar. It is the major attack drone Russia uses in Ukraine for long-range operations. Ukraine has had difficulty knocking them out, but it has come up with interceptor drones such as Zirka and Bullet that are somewhat effective. Interceptor drones have pattern-matching software and cameras so they can recognize and target an enemy drone without the operator needing to do anything. To counter Zirka and Bullet and other interceptor drones, the Russians have built some Gerans with Chinese-origin jet engines, making them fast enough to outrun interceptor drones.<\/p>\n

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Decoy Drones<\/strong><\/p>\n

In the Ukraine war, which extends to Russian territory, drone wars include swarms of drone attacks. The theory is that swarms of drones will overwhelm and saturate enemy defenses, and some of the drones (perhaps 10% against a layered air defense system) will get through to their target. Long-range drones are more expensive than FPV battlefield drones, by a factor of 5 times or more. They also eat up scarce resources such as short-supply electronics. Ukraine and Russia both have used cheaper decoy drones as part of attack swarms. These drones \u201cfollow the leader\u201d and are just cheap model airplanes designed to clutter up enemy radars and get the enemy to shoot off expensive air defense missiles. A typical air defense missile can cost anywhere from $100,000 to $2 million each, making the economics of defense costly and disproportionate.<\/p>\n

Surveillance Drones<\/strong><\/p>\n

The U.S. has built the world\u2019s most sophisticated surveillance drones, but these are very costly (millions each) and highly vulnerable. In the recent Iran war, the Iranians shot down 30 to 45 U.S. MQ-9 Reaper surveillance and attack drones (Reapers can carry the Hellfire missile). Reaper drones cost $30 to $34 million each, representing almost $1.5 billion in losses.<\/p>\n

Other U.S. drones are stealthy, such as the RQ-170 and the RQ-4a Global Hawk. Iran shot down a Global Hawk over the Straits of Hormuz in June 2019 using a surface-to-air missile, suggesting that even a stealthy drone can be vulnerable to air defenses. The cost of a Global Hawk is $130 million.<\/p>\n

Sea Drones<\/strong><\/p>\n

Sea drones are an increasing threat to military and civilian ships at sea and to vulnerable infrastructure such as bridges across waterways. Sea drones were initially based on jet skis, but recent drones such as Magura and Sea Baby are home-designed. These can pack explosives ranging from hundreds of kilograms to 2,000 kilograms, making them extremely lethal. Ukraine\u2019s sea drones cost about $300,000 to produce but can destroy a cargo ship or enemy warship that represents hundreds of millions of investment and the potential loss of life of the ship\u2019s crew.<\/p>\n

Sea drones can loiter in areas, and some are hard to detect. Sea drones will play an increasingly significant combat role in the future. One can imagine, for example, that fleets of sea drones could knock out a Chinese seaborne invasion of Taiwan. It is worth noting that Taiwan knows this and is developing a number of sea drones. Taiwanese manufacturer Thunder Tiger has developed and demonstrated uncrewed surface vessels like the Sea Shark 600 and larger Sea Shark 800. The Sea Shark 800 is designed to travel up to 310 miles and carry thousands of pounds of explosives for coastal defense. Taiwan\u2019s National Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology (NCSIST) recently signed a deal with U.S. defense startup Vatn Systems to develop modular autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) and establish local maintenance supply chains.<\/p>\n

Land-Based Drones<\/strong><\/p>\n

So far at least, surface drones that operate on the ground have only been demonstrated in battlefield use. Given that drones can destroy armor and troop formations, the future of land warfare may see the rise of land drones that can replace tanks and armored fighting vehicles.<\/p>\n

The future may also include robotic soldiers (that may or may not look human). The U.S. and China, in particular, are pushing this technology, mostly aimed at manufacturing and delivering services (flipping burgers, serving drinks, cleaning offices and homes, mowing grass). But the military will start to see how a small robot could infiltrate enemy positions or support special service operations. Just as the U.S. Air Force is working on Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA), which is a type of semi-autonomous drone that flies with a manned jet like the F-35, the Army will seek collaborative platforms that can support armor formations and assault groups. The Army will reap many benefits, including reducing casualties and better support on the battlefield. Land robots may need their batteries recharged, but they don\u2019t eat, don\u2019t require shelter, and don\u2019t need medics. If they are designed smartly, they will be expendable assets less expensive than a $15 million Abrams tank, and without crews that could be wounded or killed and are hard to replace. Once you train a robot, that training can work for all of them. When you lose a tank crew, you need to train a new one and hope it will learn from experience, assuming it survives. One of the lessons of the Ukraine war is that tank crew survival is a major issue.<\/p>\n

Impact of Drones<\/strong><\/p>\n

Drones are changing warfare. In the Nagorno-Karabakh war, Israeli and Turkish drones helped Azerbaijan win the conflict. Armenian-supported forces in the disputed territory simply were unprepared. Their mobile missile systems, armored vehicles, and command centers were systematically destroyed, including a heavy loss of life.<\/p>\n

Even more dramatically, drones allowed Ukraine to hold off the Russians after the Ukrainians used up much of their antitank ammunition in 2022 and 2023. While the war is not over, so far at least the Russians have not won, although they have gained territory. At the same time, both sides are inflicting serious damage on each other in the form of long-range drone strikes.<\/p>\n

Both sides have tens of thousands of drones and have become good at using them. Both depend on China for critical supplies, and it is remarkable that the Russians have been unable to persuade the Chinese to stop supplying Ukraine. One supposes the business is just too lucrative for corrupt Chinese businesses that are intimately linked to China\u2019s ruling elites.<\/p>\n

But wars cannot be won by drones only. While drone effectiveness is considerable, you still need land forces that can seize and hold territory, and you need air power and more impactful weapons to\u00a0destroy an enemy\u2019s ability to fight.<\/p>\n

Today the Pentagon is going all out to improve its drone capabilities, especially low-cost battlefield drones, which it neglected for many years. The War Department is working hard trying to find and deploy effective drone countermeasures. Similarly, Israel, which faces a terrorist threat and long-range drones from the Houthis and Iran, is trying to field systems, including lasers, to kill drones. But counter-drone warfare is still in its infancy.<\/p>\n

Read more The \u2018Smartening\u2019 of America<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We are only beginning to understand the full potential of drone warfare. 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