{"id":7,"date":"2026-05-24T12:29:27","date_gmt":"2026-05-24T12:29:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/urbaneconomynews.com\/?p=7"},"modified":"2026-05-24T12:29:27","modified_gmt":"2026-05-24T12:29:27","slug":"out-on-a-limb-but-unmoved-trump-will-finish-the-job-in-iran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/urbaneconomynews.com\/?p=7","title":{"rendered":"Out on a Limb, but Unmoved: Trump Will Finish the Job in Iran"},"content":{"rendered":"
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I\u00a0am out on a limb. The clock is ticking. On Wednesday,\u00a0I wrote\u00a0in\u00a0my new Substack column\u00a0that I thought it unlikely that \u201cthe \u2018negotiations\u2019 or (to describe what is happening more accurately) the grandstanding and playing for time by Iran will not result in an affidavit of surrender that is acceptable to President Trump.\u201d<\/p>\n

Read more Hello world!<\/a><\/p>\n

If that is the case, and given that\u00a0the U.S. Senate is making noises\u00a0about enacting a War Powers resolution aimed at \u201cforcing Donald Trump to end the war in Iran unless he receives congressional authorization to continue it,\u201d I suspect that hostilities will resume quite soon. Today is Wednesday. The next sleepy news day is likely Friday, May 22. Look for the\u00a0short, sharp shock\u00a0then or over the weekend.<\/p>\n

Friday has come and gone. Do I feel like revising the timetable or even adjusting my prediction that hostilities will resume?<\/p>\n

As to the first, not really. It\u2019s Memorial Day weekend here in the States, which means that it is a long weekend. If something kinetic (I love that Greek-inspired euphemism) is going to happen in the near term, I believe that it will happen now, taking \u201cnow\u201d in the generous sense we all accord to historical happenings.<\/p>\n

There are both intrinsic and what we might call extrinsic reasons for this.<\/p>\n

The intrinsic reasons include the fact that the replenishment of U.S. forces in the area is basically complete. Men and mat\u00e9riel are both at the ready. Too long a wait risks dulling the edge of readiness. Then too, the ceasefire has given Iran time to catch its breath, dig out and deploy\u00a0its remaining drones and missiles, and resume its antic threats and posturing.<\/p>\n

In short, as Shakespeare has Brutus observe before the Battle of Philippi,<\/p>\n

The enemy increaseth every day;<\/p>\n

We, at the height, are ready to decline.<\/p>\n

There is a tide in the affairs of men,<\/p>\n

Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;<\/p>\n

Omitted, all the voyage of their life<\/p>\n

Is bound in shallows and in miseries.<\/p>\n

On such a full sea are we now afloat;<\/p>\n

And we must take the current when it serves,<\/p>\n

Or lose our ventures.<\/p>\n

When it comes to the extrinsic factors impinging on the president\u2019s deliberations, most of them can be filed in the dossier marked \u201cpolitics.\u201d The conflict with Iran is not broadly popular. In part, this is because it was undertaken by Donald Trump and is, therefore, for a certain portion of the populace, most of the media, and for all of the Democrat party, by definition illegitimate.<\/p>\n

There is also the issue of the cost of oil, which means the cost of energy, which includes the cost of gasoline. Voters do not like it when those costs rise. It\u2019s getting towards the end of May now. The cost of oil must come down soon, or the situation will hurt Republicans, and therefore Donald Trump, in the midterm elections come November.<\/p>\n

But maybe I need to rethink the entire scenario. Maybe, when push comes to shove (as it always does with Iran), Donald Trump will pull off a mask and reveal the ghastly rictus of Barack Obama or Joe Biden. That is to say, maybe President Trump will push back from the table and say, \u201cWe won. We\u2019re going home. Iran can do as it likes.\u201d<\/p>\n

That contingency, as Jeeves would say, is remote.<\/p>\n

Iran has just issued another in its seemingly endless series of proposals to bring the conflict to an end. This one is in two parts. Part 1: the U.S. declares that the war has ended and sets up a scheme to compensate Iran for the cost of the war. For its part, Iran would \u201cprovisionally\u201d open the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n

Part 2: Iran wants full relief from the sanctions that America has imposed upon it and recognition of its formal right to enrich uranium. In exchange, Iran would agree to suspend enriching uranium above 3.6 percent for 10 years and would dilute any uranium already enriched above 20 percent. Iran would also commit to not developing a nuclear weapon.<\/p>\n

What do you think of this proposal? I think that the chap who described it as \u201ca bad joke\u201d got it in one. \u201cNo serious American president,\u201d\u00a0he wrote, \u201c\u2014especially President Trump\u2014would accept a deal that makes the JCPOA look brilliant by comparison.\u201d Another commentator performed an admirable translation\u00a0of Iran\u2019s proposal into plain English:<\/p>\n

1) The U.S. will give up all leverage<\/p>\n

2) Iran will pretend to relinquish some leverage, while not actually doing so<\/p>\n

3) Iran will then engage the U.S. in endless negotiations that never lead to any meaningful concessions<\/p>\n

Do you believe Donald Trump will acquiesce to these terms? I don\u2019t. On the contrary,\u00a0the ultimatum the U.S. just issued\u00a0to Iran demonstrates how far apart the two sides are. That ultimatum includes non-negotiable demands that Iran give up its 400 kilograms of enriched uranium and that its nuclear program shrink to one facility. It also denies absolutely any \u201creparations\u201d for the cost of the war and refuses to unlock frozen Iranian assets.<\/p>\n

Another tidbit to feed into the policy abacus: Donald Trump\u2019s daughter Ivanka,\u00a0it was just reported, was targeted by an IRGC-trained Iraqi terrorist called Mohammad Baqer Saad Dawood Al-Saadi. This lovable chap was arrested in Turkey on May 15 and extradited to the U.S. I reckon that was something President Trump thought about when he suddenly canceled his plans for Memorial Day weekend. He skipped his son\u2019s wedding and his trip to his country club in Bedminster, New Jersey. Instead, he returned to Washington as the Pentagon put its staff on \u201cmoment\u2019s notice\u201d status, the National Security Council huddled with the president, and Iran started jamming GPS signals and closing its western airspace.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s the end game? President Trump vouchsafed the world a hint in a Truth Social post on Saturday. It\u2019s a map of the Middle East showing Iran\u00a0bedecked with the stars and stripes and emblazoned with the headline: \u201cUnited States of the Middle East?\u201d Later Saturday he announced that \u201cAn Agreement has been largely negotiated,\u201d subject to review. All of which is to say that I stick by my original prediction. Donald Trump is not Barack Obama. One way or the other\u2014through tough negotiation or by force\u2014he will \u201cfinish the job.\u201d He would prefer the former. If he wants a longstanding peace and a free Iran, he is likely to require the latter.<\/p>\n

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