{"id":70,"date":"2026-05-24T23:07:07","date_gmt":"2026-05-24T23:07:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/urbaneconomynews.com\/?p=70"},"modified":"2026-05-24T23:07:07","modified_gmt":"2026-05-24T23:07:07","slug":"america-is-not-caught-in-a-thucydides-trap","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/urbaneconomynews.com\/?p=70","title":{"rendered":"America Is Not Caught in a \u2018Thucydides Trap\u2019!"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

The distinguished political scientist Graham Allison, author of the 2015 Atlantic <\/em>article \u201cThe Thucydides Trap,\u201d argued that often in history an established power will stage a preventive war against an ascendant adversary\u2014for fear that otherwise it will soon lose its primacy.<\/p>\n

Read more The Supervised Public Sphere<\/a><\/p>\n

His title derives from two passages in the first book of the ancient Greek historian Thucydides (460\u2013400\/395? BC), author of The Peloponnesian War<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Thucydides, on these two occasions, felt that the most likely cause of the Spartan-Athenian war (431\u2013404) was Spartan fear of an increasingly powerful rival Athenian empire. That anxiety supposedly prompted a Spartan preventive invasion before, so Sparta believed it would be insidiously eclipsed by its more dynamic Athenian competitor.<\/p>\n

Allison and others argue that this paradigm now applies to the United States. It is the supposed jittery established power\u2014and a rising Communist China is the upstart contender. His theory implies that the US might, like Sparta, take provocative steps to abort an inevitable Chinese-dominated world.<\/p>\n

There are, however, a number of problems, ancient and modern, with Allison\u2019s intriguing thesis.<\/p>\n

First, Thucydides left his history unfinished and unrevised. And so often he offers analyses that are contradicted by his other observations elsewhere in history.<\/p>\n

For example, in a variety of passages, the historian contrasts the antithetical Spartan and Athenian systems. He does this to explain why they often fell into disputes even before <\/em>the Peloponnesian War\u2014such as after their shared successful effort against the Persians (480\u2013479) and during the prior fifteen-year conflict, the so-called \u201cfirst\u201d Peloponnesian War (460\u2013445 BC).<\/p>\n

Sparta was oligarchic, Dorian, and an infantry power. It was a parochial landlocked society, overseeing a vast population of enserfed helots. Athens, in contrast, was radically democratic, Ionian, and slave-owning, with a huge navy and maritime empire. It was as cosmopolitan a city as Sparta was a closed society.<\/p>\n

So there were many long-standing, deeply rooted differences that sparked tensions and war, besides the Spartans\u2019 fear of Athenian expansionism.<\/p>\n

Moreover, the time-honored hegemon Sparta won the war<\/em>, as do most such established superpowers.<\/p>\n

The centuries-long dominance of the British Royal Navy explained why Britain was able to stop the upstart Hitler\u2019s blitz and planned invasion of Britain. The economy and resources of the established US took only four years to crush the aspiring new hegemon, imperial Japan.<\/p>\n

The same was true in the Cold War, when the US wore down a supposedly ascendant Soviet Union.<\/p>\n

Read more Part II: The Politicization of the Federal Courts During the Second Trump Presidency<\/a><\/p>\n

Often, it is not even the traditional superpower that instigates the wars that they win. It is just as common in world history for a would-be new power to initiate hostilities or launch a war against a traditionally dominant nation. Compare the foolhardy conflicts that they often lose, like the wars, either hot or cold, that would-be hegemons Germany, Japan, and the Soviet Union all started against the dominant US.<\/p>\n

Moreover, great-power rivalries between a veteran powerhouse and a newcomer often never <\/em>result in war. The US gradually replaced the British Empire in the postwar era as the global policeman without a war. Britain and France peacefully accepted the \u201cGerman miracle\u201d of postwar West Germany\u2019s ascendance as Europe\u2019s dominant economic power.<\/p>\n

A better prognosticator of the likelihood of war, ancient and modern, is whether the adversaries\u2019 political, economic, and cultural systems are similar or antithetical. If they are different, the chances of war between such opposing systems mount. (Contrast Athens and Sparta, Nazi Germany and Britain, imperial Japan and the US, etc.)<\/p>\n

Finally, how does the supposed \u201cThucydides Trap\u201d apply to the US and China?<\/p>\n

Despite the recent summit hype, not at all.<\/p>\n

America is the traditional global power but is also radically ascendant; China is the upcoming challenger but is currently stumbling.<\/p>\n

In all the key indicators\u2014oil and gas production, food self-sufficiency, fertility, innovation, weaponry, constitutional stability, personal freedom, university STEM programs, naval carrier groups, air power, nuclear arsenals, space exploration, GDP per capita, and alliances\u2014America continues to widen<\/em> its advantages.<\/p>\n

Thus, the US, as the status quo superpower, has no need to launch a preventive war against a struggling China.<\/p>\n

Why?<\/p>\n

One, Beijing is not ascendant vis-\u00e0-vis America in the key areas that count.<\/p>\n

Two, both countries are nuclear powers, and neither wishes Armageddon.<\/p>\n

In sum, there is historically no universal \u201cThucydides Trap\u201d phenomenon of asymmetrical rivalries leading inevitably to war.<\/p>\n

The titular \u201ctrap\u201d is not even a complete analysis of all the major causes of the Peloponnesian War, as outlined by Thucydides himself.<\/p>\n

Moreover, ascendant powers start as many wars as do fearful, stronger, and established nations. And the upstarts more often than not lose their risky gambits against the established powers.<\/p>\n

So, we are not caught in a \u201cThucydides Trap.\u201d We can prevent any challenges from a weaker China from escalating to war through deterrence, alliances, maintaining a balance of power, occasional respectful negotiations\u2014and our far greater power and resilience.<\/p>\n

Read more Jim Crow and the Blame Game<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The distinguished political scientist Graham Allison, author of the 2015 Atlantic article \u201cThe Thucydides Trap,\u201d argued that often in history an established\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":69,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-70","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-china"],"yoast_head":"\nAmerica Is Not Caught in a \u2018Thucydides Trap\u2019! - Urban Economy news<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/urbaneconomynews.com\/?p=70\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"America Is Not Caught in a \u2018Thucydides Trap\u2019! - Urban Economy news\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The distinguished political scientist Graham Allison, author of the 2015 Atlantic article \u201cThe Thucydides Trap,\u201d argued that often in history an established\u2026\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/urbaneconomynews.com\/?p=70\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Urban Economy news\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-05-24T23:07:07+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/urbaneconomynews.com\\\/?p=70#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/urbaneconomynews.com\\\/?p=70\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/urbaneconomynews.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/be7753cb687f443815cc81e8407f68ad\"},\"headline\":\"America Is Not Caught in a \u2018Thucydides Trap\u2019!\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-05-24T23:07:07+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/urbaneconomynews.com\\\/?p=70\"},\"wordCount\":844,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/urbaneconomynews.com\\\/?p=70#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/urbaneconomynews.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/05\\\/1b374550e0843b7c13f2018ebe375a49.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"China\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/urbaneconomynews.com\\\/?p=70#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/urbaneconomynews.com\\\/?p=70\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/urbaneconomynews.com\\\/?p=70\",\"name\":\"America Is Not Caught in a \u2018Thucydides Trap\u2019! - Urban Economy news\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/urbaneconomynews.com\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/urbaneconomynews.com\\\/?p=70#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/urbaneconomynews.com\\\/?p=70#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/urbaneconomynews.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/05\\\/1b374550e0843b7c13f2018ebe375a49.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-05-24T23:07:07+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/urbaneconomynews.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/be7753cb687f443815cc81e8407f68ad\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/urbaneconomynews.com\\\/?p=70#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/urbaneconomynews.com\\\/?p=70\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/urbaneconomynews.com\\\/?p=70#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/urbaneconomynews.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/05\\\/1b374550e0843b7c13f2018ebe375a49.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/urbaneconomynews.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/05\\\/1b374550e0843b7c13f2018ebe375a49.jpg\",\"width\":2560,\"height\":1440},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/urbaneconomynews.com\\\/?p=70#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/urbaneconomynews.com\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"America Is Not Caught in a \u2018Thucydides Trap\u2019!\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/urbaneconomynews.com\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/urbaneconomynews.com\\\/\",\"name\":\"Urban Economy news\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/urbaneconomynews.com\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/urbaneconomynews.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/be7753cb687f443815cc81e8407f68ad\",\"name\":\"admin\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/50b1ad2e498f523425ee0a8cc5180a210646db1622662a3d56cc405d3e0c346a?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/50b1ad2e498f523425ee0a8cc5180a210646db1622662a3d56cc405d3e0c346a?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/50b1ad2e498f523425ee0a8cc5180a210646db1622662a3d56cc405d3e0c346a?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"admin\"},\"sameAs\":[\"http:\\\/\\\/urbaneconomynews.com\"],\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/urbaneconomynews.com\\\/?author=1\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"America Is Not Caught in a \u2018Thucydides Trap\u2019! - Urban Economy news","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/urbaneconomynews.com\/?p=70","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"America Is Not Caught in a \u2018Thucydides Trap\u2019! - Urban Economy news","og_description":"The distinguished political scientist Graham Allison, author of the 2015 Atlantic article \u201cThe Thucydides Trap,\u201d argued that often in history an established\u2026","og_url":"https:\/\/urbaneconomynews.com\/?p=70","og_site_name":"Urban Economy news","article_published_time":"2026-05-24T23:07:07+00:00","author":"admin","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"admin","Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/urbaneconomynews.com\/?p=70#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/urbaneconomynews.com\/?p=70"},"author":{"name":"admin","@id":"https:\/\/urbaneconomynews.com\/#\/schema\/person\/be7753cb687f443815cc81e8407f68ad"},"headline":"America Is Not Caught in a \u2018Thucydides Trap\u2019!","datePublished":"2026-05-24T23:07:07+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/urbaneconomynews.com\/?p=70"},"wordCount":844,"commentCount":0,"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/urbaneconomynews.com\/?p=70#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/urbaneconomynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/1b374550e0843b7c13f2018ebe375a49.jpg","articleSection":["China"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/urbaneconomynews.com\/?p=70#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/urbaneconomynews.com\/?p=70","url":"https:\/\/urbaneconomynews.com\/?p=70","name":"America Is Not Caught in a \u2018Thucydides Trap\u2019! - Urban Economy news","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/urbaneconomynews.com\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/urbaneconomynews.com\/?p=70#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/urbaneconomynews.com\/?p=70#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/urbaneconomynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/1b374550e0843b7c13f2018ebe375a49.jpg","datePublished":"2026-05-24T23:07:07+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/urbaneconomynews.com\/#\/schema\/person\/be7753cb687f443815cc81e8407f68ad"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/urbaneconomynews.com\/?p=70#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/urbaneconomynews.com\/?p=70"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/urbaneconomynews.com\/?p=70#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/urbaneconomynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/1b374550e0843b7c13f2018ebe375a49.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/urbaneconomynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/1b374550e0843b7c13f2018ebe375a49.jpg","width":2560,"height":1440},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/urbaneconomynews.com\/?p=70#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/urbaneconomynews.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"America Is Not Caught in a \u2018Thucydides Trap\u2019!"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/urbaneconomynews.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/urbaneconomynews.com\/","name":"Urban Economy news","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/urbaneconomynews.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/urbaneconomynews.com\/#\/schema\/person\/be7753cb687f443815cc81e8407f68ad","name":"admin","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/50b1ad2e498f523425ee0a8cc5180a210646db1622662a3d56cc405d3e0c346a?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/50b1ad2e498f523425ee0a8cc5180a210646db1622662a3d56cc405d3e0c346a?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/50b1ad2e498f523425ee0a8cc5180a210646db1622662a3d56cc405d3e0c346a?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"admin"},"sameAs":["http:\/\/urbaneconomynews.com"],"url":"https:\/\/urbaneconomynews.com\/?author=1"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/urbaneconomynews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/urbaneconomynews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/urbaneconomynews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/urbaneconomynews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/urbaneconomynews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=70"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/urbaneconomynews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/urbaneconomynews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/69"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/urbaneconomynews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=70"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/urbaneconomynews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=70"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/urbaneconomynews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=70"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}