There are now fewer than 100 days until the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican Party, led by President Donald Trump, is seeking to do something quite unprecedented—hold on to its razor-thin majority in the House of Representatives. Only twice in modern times has the president’s party picked up House seats in a midterm election, in 1998 and 2002. When the sitting president is “underwater”—below 50 percent—in job approval polls, as Trump is now, the president’s party has always lost House seats. And in every midterm election since 1946, at least five House seats have flipped from one party to the other, and the GOP can only afford to lose a net two seats to keep its majority.
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Amazingly, despite all this, the GOP still has a credible chance to keep control of the House in 2026.
A major reason for that is that House elections operate on a “boom-and-bust” cycle, and the GOP is already at a “bust” level, i.e., a low level. In 2018, the Democrats’ “blue wave” captured 41 seats for the Democrats, moving them up to 235 seats. In 2020, the GOP won back 14 seats. In 2022, they picked up another 9. In 2024, the Republicans lost two House seats, leaving it with a 220–215 majority.
Another reason is that the GOP was triumphant in the 2026 gerrymandering battles and has additionally benefited from the Supreme Court decision in Callais. The Republicans are very likely to pick up House seats in Alabama, Florida, Missouri, Louisiana, Tennessee, and Texas, and other gains are possible in North Carolina and Ohio. Meanwhile, thanks to Democrat incompetence in Virginia, only California was redistricted to favor Democrats. As a result of the new lines, the Republicans lead in three of the four political forecasts for the House. According to many political observers, because of these line changes, the Democrats need to win the generic ballot by 5 percent just to have a chance to win the majority.
Then there is the money situation, which overwhelmingly favors the Republicans. The three main GOP committees and their two caucus-aligned super PACs reported $657 million cash on hand at the end of June, which is nearly double the $334 million held by their Democrats. Recently, the DNC was forced to put its physical headquarters up as collateral for a $15 million line of credit. And the MAGA Inc. super PAC that was set up by President Trump is sitting on a political fund of over $400 million. Further, thanks to another Supreme Court decision, rules restricting coordination between candidates and political parties were loosened, which will allow party committees to spend freely working with candidates, and that will disproportionately benefit the Republicans.
The Democrats are not helping their situation by their continuing adherence to unpopular left-wing positions, which the GOP is able to use as a “wedge” issue against them. This includes the “trans” issue, which was memorably employed against former Vice President Kamala Harris during the final weeks of the 2024 campaign. Other such issues are Democrat support for “defunding the police” and opposition to any border control or a crackdown on illegal aliens.
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The Democrat civil war between the Democrat Socialists of America and the moderate Democrats has also exacerbated the turn to extreme leftism by Democrats. Thanks to decades of leftist college indoctrination, among largely white Democrats, socialism/communism has seen its popularity rise, the U.S. has been painted as a racist and colonialist power, and the Jewish state of Israel and its American Jewish supporters have been demonized. Now, those indoctrinated white leftists are voting for the DSA. However, moderate Democrats, including black and Hispanic Democrats and Jewish Democrats, as well as independents, find the DSA positions insane, and this is harming the party’s electoral prospects in the more competitive districts. It is also likely contributing to the Democrats’ money woes, as bashing capitalism and Jews are almost certainly going to suppress Democrat fundraising.
Further, the Democrats have been too successful in the brainwashing of their base into Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS). As noted by Democrat Sen. John Fetterman, TDS “governs” the party, meaning that whenever Donald Trump promotes a cause or issue, the Democrat base swings heavily against it. Allowing your political rival to dictate your party’s positions is incredibly dangerous.
Finally, the Republicans also seem likely to benefit from some new and unique outside-the-box tactics. Donald Trump was a celebrity for decades and has always been an excellent self-promoter. Now, as president, he is planning a September 2026 Republican midterm convention in Dallas, Texas, which is likely to be far more geared towards promoting the GOP and Trump brands than earlier Democrat midterm conventions promoted the Democrat cause. In fact, the earlier Democrat midterm conventions only exposed to the nation, in the 70s and 80s, the consistent Democrat infighting and their extreme left-wing positions.
What the Democrats have going for them is the unpopularity of the Iran war and the resulting rise in gas prices. Which is, without a doubt, enough to make the Democrats the favorites to win control over the House. Nevertheless, the campaign hasn’t really yet begun—post-Labor Day is its traditional start—and the Republicans still have a chance to upset the conventional wisdom.
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But “We’ll (Just Have to) See What Happens.”